Private Equity Companies May 28, 2008
Posted by Coolguy in Finance.Tags: Macroeconomics, Recession
add a comment
With US economy in recession and credit crunch hitting the market LBO (Leveraged Buyout) frenzy of 07 may be muted. In the first half of 2008, LBO’s fell by 40% of the dollar value of deals through July.
Nevertheless, there will be value hunters in the market buying assets at fire sale prices. Here are some of the biggest private equity firms from Fortune magazine.
| Name | Recent Deals | Noteworthy |
| The Carlyle Group | ||
| The Blackstone Group | Hilton Hotels | |
| KKR
(Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) |
Boots UK, TXU, Dollar General | |
| Bain Capital | Toys “R” Us, Outback Steakhouse | |
| Warburg Pincus | Bausch & Lomb, MBIA | Assets in China, India and Korea |
| TPG
(Texas Pacific Group) |
Washington Mutual | |
| Advent International | Hudson Group,
Lululemon |
Euro based. |
| Apollo | Harrah’s, Linens ‘n Things | Share price tanked 40% since IPO. |
| Providence | Bell Canada | Focus on media and communication sectors |
| First Reserve | A number of oil service companies | Oil sector |
| Silver Lake Partners | SunGuard | Focus on technology |
| Thomas H.Lee | Clear Channel | |
| Madison Dearborn | Seven niche sectors including paper products | |
| Hellman & Freidman | Getty Images | |
| Cerberus | Chrysler | |
| Alinda Partners | Infrastructure Investments | |
| Colony Capital | Real estate. Stake in Carrefour | |
| J.C. Flowers | Financial-Services companies | |
| Apax partners | Phillips Semiconductors | London based |
| Permira Advisors | Hugo Boss, Valentino | Europe based |
| CVC Capital Partners | Formula 1 | Europe based |
| Cinven | Odeon Cinemas, McVite’s brand | Europe based |
| Terra Firma | EMI | Europe based |
When will US get out of recession ? May 22, 2008
Posted by Coolguy in Finance.Tags: Macroeconomics, Recession
2 comments
At this point almost all of the financial pundits have concluded that US is in economic recession. Most of the macroeconomic indicators are looking pretty bad and financial markets are going south.
I begun wondering if a rebound is anywhere near. While I am not attempting to answer this question, here is a set of good indicators that should give you a feel on how you can see a rebound coming.
(Unfortunately this post also made me painfully aware of the limitations of WordPress wrt tables. I think i am going to look for an alternative…)
|
Factor |
Your Job |
Credit Availability |
|
Indicator |
Performance of your company |
Credit spreads |
|
What to look for? |
Stock price and information your know about your company |
TED Spread |
|
What is it? |
Measure of a company’s future earning prospects |
Difference between LIBOR and 3 month treasury bills |
|
Why is it important? |
If your company’s stock is up and if it’s better than industry, market reckons your company will grow and so will you. |
Higher TED spread indicates banks are nervous about lending among them selves.
This is effect companies and individuals. |
|
Where can you look? |
Numerous public sources |
Bankrate.com. Its LIBOR-3 month t-bill rate |
|
When is it updated? |
By minute |
Daily |
|
What’s normal? |
– |
0.40% |
|
When is it really bad? |
Drops to 52 week low’s or is not in line sector indexes |
1.50% and more |
|
Factor |
General Economy |
Inflation |
|
Indicator |
Business sentiment
|
Money supply |
|
What to look for? |
ISM Non-manufacturing index
|
M2 |
|
What is it? |
Monthly survey of conditions in service sector |
Money supply growth that changes with interest rates cuts by Fed |
|
Why is it important? |
80% of jobs in US now are in service sector |
Fed cuts interest rates by buying treasury bonds from banks. This increases money supply and reduces dollar value |
|
Where can you look? |
||
|
When is it updated? |
3rd Business day of every month |
Every week |
|
What’s normal? |
50+ |
6% |
|
When is it really bad? |
When it drops below 50 and stays there |
Compounded annual rate of 14% |
|
Factor |
Financial Markets |
House prices |
|
Indicator |
Interest rates
|
Inventory |
|
What to look for? |
Fed interest rates. |
Housing supply inventory |
|
What is it? |
Interest rates changes by Federal reserve. |
Number of houses for sale, measured by months of supply available |
|
Why is it important? |
Stock prices follow corp. earnings. Lower interest rates make earnings more valuable. Markets typically take about a year from rate cuts to recover |
Rising inventory is a sign of decreasing prices. |
|
Where can you look? |
Numerous public sources |
http://www.housingtracker.net/
and your local realtor |
|
When is it updated? |
Every month |
Every month |
|
What’s normal? |
1-5% |
6 months |
|
When is it really bad? |
8% and above ? |
9 months and above |
