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When will US get out of recession ? May 22, 2008

Posted by Coolguy in Finance.
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At this point almost all of the financial pundits have concluded that US is in economic recession. Most of the macroeconomic indicators are looking pretty bad and financial markets are going south.

I begun wondering if a rebound is anywhere near. While I am not attempting to answer this question, here is a set of good indicators that should give you a feel on how you can see a rebound coming.

(Unfortunately this post also made me painfully aware of the limitations of WordPress wrt tables. I think i am going to look for an alternative…)

Factor

Your Job

Credit Availability

Indicator

Performance of your company

Credit spreads

What to look for?

Stock price and information your know about your company

TED Spread

What is it?

Measure of a company’s future earning prospects

Difference between LIBOR and 3 month treasury bills

Why is it important?

If your company’s stock is up and if it’s better than industry, market reckons your company will grow and so will you.

Higher TED spread indicates banks are nervous about lending among them selves.

This is effect companies and individuals.

Where can you look?

Numerous public sources

Bankrate.com. Its LIBOR-3 month t-bill rate

When is it updated?

By minute

Daily

What’s normal?

0.40%

When is it really bad?

Drops to 52 week low’s or is not in line sector indexes

1.50% and more

Factor

General Economy

Inflation

Indicator

Business sentiment

Money supply

What to look for?

ISM Non-manufacturing index

M2

What is it?

Monthly survey of conditions in service sector

Money supply growth that changes with interest rates cuts by Fed

Why is it important?

80% of jobs in US now are in service sector

Fed cuts interest rates by buying treasury bonds from banks. This increases money supply and reduces dollar value

Where can you look?

www.ism.ws

http://www.federalreserve.gov

When is it updated?

3rd Business day of every month

Every week

What’s normal?

50+

6%

When is it really bad?

When it drops below 50 and stays there

Compounded annual rate of 14%

Factor

Financial Markets

House prices

Indicator

Interest rates

Inventory

What to look for?

Fed interest rates.

Housing supply inventory

What is it?

Interest rates changes by Federal reserve.

Number of houses for sale, measured by months of supply available

Why is it important?

Stock prices follow corp. earnings. Lower interest rates make earnings more valuable. Markets typically take about a year from rate cuts to recover

Rising inventory is a sign of decreasing prices.

Where can you look?

Numerous public sources

http://www.housingtracker.net/

and your local realtor

When is it updated?

Every month

Every month

What’s normal?

1-5%

6 months

When is it really bad?

8% and above ?

9 months and above

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Comments»

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